By Tanya Metaksa
What’s New— North Carolina: North Carolina’s legislature returns today, July 27, when it may take up veto overrides, including S50, the constitutional carry bill; Politics: Remaining Primary Elections Calendar: July: Arizona results; Important August primary elections with listing of endorsed candidates; 2026 Elections: Senator Susan Collins-a 30-year veteran of the U.S. Senate.
State Legislatures: Still in session:
States running through to Dec, 31: Michigan, New Jersey, and Ohio. Pennsylvania session runs through Nov. 30, 2027. Alaska has had a special session in July that ends TBD. South Carolina is currently in a special session. Finally Massachusetts adjourns July 31 and then has “an informal session.
New Hampshire: Governor Kelly Ayotte signed two pro-2nd Amendment bills into law on July 15.
- HB1279 amending New Hampshire’s self-defense laws allows the use of an affirmative defense when deadly force is used in defense of others, becoming effective on Jan. 1, 2027.
- HB1365 amending New Hampshire’s License to Carry a Pistol or Revolver application process. The law has stripped away the requirements for applicants to provide personal references, employment information, or personal medical or mental health history. Although New Hampshire is a constitutional carry state, permits can be useful for interstate traveling with firearms. The law takes effect upon signing.
North Carolina: North Carolina’s legislature is adjourned until July 27, when it may take up veto overrides, including S50, a permitless carry bill that passed in 2025, and was vetoed by Governor Stein, overridden in the Senate, and now awaits a House supermajority to become law.
Politics
Arizona Primary election winners from July 21
In Congressional District 1, endorsed Joseph Chaplik lost his primary. In the Gubernatorial primary David Schweikert also lost to Andy Biggs, and both candidates were describe as having an NRA-PVF “A” rating. For Attorney General endorsed Warren Peterson won. In the State Senate Republican primary all the following endorsed candidates won: District 02-Shawnna Bolick; 03-John Kavanagh; 27-Kevin Payne. In the State House all the following endorsed candidates won: District 01: Quang Nguyen and Selina Bliss; 03-Cody Reim; 04-Pamela Carter and Matt Gress; 07-Walter Blackman; 10-Justin Olson; 14-Laurin Hendrix; 19-Lupe Diaz and David Gowan; 28-David Livingston and Beverly Pingerelli
Remaining Primary Elections Calendar:
July 28 gubernatorial primary election
South Dakota: Current Governor Larry Rhoden has been endorsed for reelection with an A+ rating.
August Primary elections:: Alaska, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin, Washington, and Wyoming
August 2026 Gubernatorial primary elections
The NRA Political Victory Fund has lined up behind pro‑gun Republican candidates in all three states, endorsing Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin, Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, and Ty Masterson in Kansas and assigning each its highest “A+” or endorsement rating.
Kansas gubernatorial primary – August 4
The NRA-PVF has issued an “A+” rating and formal endorsement to State Senate President Ty Masterson in the 2026 gubernatorial primary, framing its support around his legislative record on firearm rights. The endorsement announcement highlights Masterson’s role in advancing pro‑gun legislation in the Kansas Legislature and similarly urges “every Kansas voter who values their right to keep and bear arms” to support his campaign in the Republican primary.
Tennessee gubernatorial primary – August 6
In Tennessee’s August 6, 2026 gubernatorial primary, the NRA-PVF grades and endorsements page lists U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn as the endorsed Republican candidate for governor, identifying her as the NRA-backed choice in that statewide race. Consistent with its incumbent‑friendly posture, the NRA-PVF cites Blackburn’s long-standing support for gun rights as the basis for its backing, using its grading and endorsement framework to signal to Tennessee primary voters that she is the preferred candidate for preserving a favorable Second Amendment landscape at the state level.
Wisconsin gubernatorial primary – August 11
The NRA-PVF has endorsed U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany for governor in the Aug. 11 primary and awarded him an “A+” rating, signaling both strong alignment with the NRA’s policy priorities and a record of active leadership on Second Amendment issues. The endorsement release characterizes Tiffany as a “proven champion” of the right to keep and bear arms, emphasizing his congressional record supporting legislation favorable to gun owners and sportsmen.
Endorsed candidates in Primary elections – August 4
Kansas: U.S. Senator: Senator Roger Marshall; U.S. House: CD-1: Rep. Tracey Mann; CD-2: Rep Derek Schmidt; CD-4: Rep. Ron Estes; State House: District 2-Rep Kenneth (Ken) Collins; District 5-Rep.Courtney Sappington; District 42-Rep. Lance W. Neelly; District 54-Rep. Ken Corbet; District 61-Rep. Francis Awerkamp; District 65-Rep. Shaun Chauncey; District 67-Rep.Kaleb James; District 68-Rep. Nathan (Nate) Butler; District 70-Rep.Greg H Wilson; District 71-Rep. Steven K. Howe; District 72-Rep. Avery Anderson; District 74-Rep. Mike King; District 75-Tyler Coats; District 76-Russel Stukey; District 81-Rep. Henry Helgerson; District 85-Rep. Ford Carr; District 85-Rep. Steven Brunk; District 101-Casey Slaughter; District 102-Rep. Kyler Sweely; District 102-Rep. Dawn Wolf; District 116-Rep. Kyle D. Hoffman; District 120-Rep. Adam Smith; District 120-Rep. Mike Storm..
Michigan: U.S. House: CD-1: Rep. Jack Bergman; CD-4: Rep. Bill Huizenga; State Senate: District 24-Doug Wozniak; District 26-Matt Bierlein; District 32-Kim Cole; District 34-Senator Roger Hauck; District 34-Senator Jason Tunney; State House: District 13-Casey Armitage; District 36-Rep. Stephen Carra; District 37-Rep. Brad Paquette; District 39-Rep. Pauline Wendzel; District 67-Rep.Phil Green; District 85-Rep. Bradley Slagh; District 88-Rep. Greg VanWoerkom.
Missouri: U.S. House: CD-2: Rep Ann Wagner; CD-3: Rep Bob Onder; CD-4: Rep. Mark Alford; CD-5: Rick Brattin; CD-7: Rep Eric W. Burlison; State Senate: District 20-Senator Curtis Trent; District 22-Senator Jill Carter; District 6—Rep. Michael Davis; District 62-Bruce Sassmann; District 97-Rep. David Casteel; District 106-Rep. Travis Wllson; District 108-Mike Costlow; District 138-Rep. Burton Whaley; District 139-Rep. Bob Titus; District 140-Rep. Jamie Gragg; District 144-Rep.Tony Harbison; District 145-Rep. Tony Harbison; District 140-Rep.Bryant Wolfin; District 140-Rep. Jeffrey Shawan; District 154-Rep..Lisa Durnell.
Virginia: U.S. House: CD-5-Rep. John McGuire
Washington: U.S. House: CD-3 – John Braun; CD-5 – Representative Michael Baumgartner. State Senate: District 7-Senator Shelly Short; House: District 02 – Pos. 2-Rep. Matt Marshall; District 04-Pos.2-Rep. Rob Chase; District 12-Pos.2-Rep. Mike Steele; District 17-Pos.1-Rep. Kevin Waters; District 19-Pos.2-Rep. Joel McEntire; District 25 -Pos.1-Rep. Michael Keaton; District 25-Pos.1-Rep. Cyndy Jacobsen; District 35-Pos.1-Rep. Dan Griffey; District 39-Pos. 1-Rep. Sam Low; District 39-Pos. 2 Rep. Robert J. Sutherland
Primary election – August 6
Tennessee: Governor: Marsha Blackburn; U.S. House: CD-4: Rep. Scott DesJarlais; CD-5: Rep. Andy Ogles; State Senate: District 01-Senator J. Adam Lowe; District 03-Senator Rusty Crowe; District 07-Senator Richard M. Briggs; District 17-Senator Mark Pody; State House: District 01-Rep. John K Crawford; District 11-Kenny Cody; District 18-Rep. Elaine Davis; District 23-Rep. Mark Cochran; District 27-Rep. Michele Reneau; District 31-Andy (Andrew) J. Swafford; District 36-Rep. Dennis Powers; District 43-Rep. Paul Sherrell; District 44-Rep.William Lamberth; District 65-Rep. Lee Reeves; District 92-Rep. Todd Warner; District 99-Rep. Tom Leatherwood.
Hawaii: there are primary elections on August 8, but there are no candidate endorsements.
Important 2026 Elections
Over the course of the next few months, we will highlight some of the important Congressional elections in this cycle. Since the activity of the last several weeks concerning the Democrat candidate in the Maine Senate election has changed, we thought we would begin by looking at the current incumbent and her background.
Senator Susan Collins: Maine Senate Elections, and her 2026 Reelection Outlook
Overview
Susan Collins has been one of the most durable statewide politicians in Maine for three decades, serving in the U.S. Senate since January 1997 after first winning election in 1996. Her political identity has centered on seniority, bipartisan positioning, constituency service, and an ability to outperform the national Republican brand in a state that often votes Democratic for president.
Career and Political Profile
Collins was born in Caribou, Maine, graduated from St. Lawrence University, and entered public service, working for Maine’s Republican Senator William (Bill) Cohen, first as a staffer when he served in the U.S. House and then continuing when he moved to the U.S. Senate, for roughly 12 years beginning in the mid‑1970s and ending in the late 1980s. She is now Maine’s senior senator, the most senior Republican woman in the Senate.
Her reputation has been built on institutional seniority and a moderate, bipartisan brand rather than movement-style partisanship. Her official Senate biography states that she has repeatedly been ranked among the Senate’s most bipartisan members and highlights legislative work in health care, national defense, education, transportation, aging policy, and intelligence reform.
That profile matters electorally in Maine because it separates Collins from the national Republican label more effectively than almost any other Republican officeholder in a blue-leaning state. Even critics who view the 2026 race as highly competitive acknowledge that Collins has long been the rare Republican who can assemble a coalition broad enough to win statewide in Maine.
Maine Senate Election History
Collins first won the seat in 1996 and was reelected in 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2020. That gives her five successful Senate elections spanning nearly thirty years, a record that is itself strong evidence of sustained voter confidence and unusual staying power.
Her 2020 reelection is especially important for evaluating 2026. In that race, Collins won 51 percent of the vote and defeated Democrat Sara Gideon by roughly nine points even while Joe Biden carried Maine at the top of the ticket, making Collins the only Senate candidate in 2020 to win in a state lost by her party’s presidential nominee.
That result demonstrated three recurring features of Collins’s electoral strength: personal crossover appeal, effective separation from national partisan headwinds, and deep familiarity with Maine voters. For a legal or political analysis of likely reelection, the 2020 result is the single strongest empirical indicator that Collins remains uniquely capable of surviving adverse partisan conditions.
Analysts have pointed to several overlapping explanations for this failure.
- Sampling and turnout modeling: Some post‑hoc work suggested pollsters under sampled working‑class and rural voters in Maine and mis‑projected the composition of the electorate, overstating Democratic turnout and understating Republican and unenrolled participation.
- Mode and “shy voter” dynamics: As in other 2016–2020 races, telephone and online surveys appear to have missed part of the Republican‑leaning universe, including voters reluctant to signal support for a polarizing GOP‑aligned figure in a heavily nationalized environment.
- Candidate‑specific factors: Polls captured Collins’ underwater favorability but did not fully translate her long‑standing reputation for independence into vote intention, especially in small, rural counties where she ultimately ran ahead of Republican baselines.
- Nationalization bias: Many observers treated Maine as a straightforward anti‑Trump and anti‑Kavanaugh terrain, but voters distinguished between national party politics and Collins personally, producing the only Senate result in 2020 where the state chose a senator from a different party than its presidential winner.
What this case shows about polling
The Collins case illustrates that polls can fail in multiple ways at once: they can miss who will vote, mis‑measure how specific groups intend to vote, and misread how a personally distinct incumbent fits into national polarization. It also shows the limits of treating apparent double‑digit leads as secure; even a battery of “high‑quality” polls can converge on an incorrect picture if they share the same sampling frame and likely‑voter assumptions. That is why forecasters and pollsters covering Maine today explicitly adjust for 2020’s R +8.5 outcome when building their models, use time‑weighted and partisanship‑adjusted averages, and experiment with new contact methods and turnout screens to avoid repeating that error.
Available public reporting identifies the race as competitive but not anti-incumbent in a way that clearly dislodges Collins. A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released in June 2026 found a slight Democratic edge in the potential matchup with disgraced Graham Platner, while a Fox News poll later in June found Collins ahead 50 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. Both polls predate Platner’s July 10 formal withdrawal.
