By Tanya Metaksa
What’s New— New Jersey’s “assault weapon” and magazine bans have been held unconstitutional by the Third Circuit in Cheeseman v. Platkin: North Carolina: North Carolina’s legislature returns July 27, when it may take up veto overrides, including S50, the constitutional carry bill; Politics: Remaining Primary Elections Calendar: July: Arizona (July 21); Important 2026 Elections: Senator Susan Collins-a 30-year veteran of the U.S. Senate.
State Legislatures
New Jersey: New Jersey’s “assault weapon” and magazine bans have been held unconstitutional by the Third Circuit in Cheeseman v. Platkin, using a very textualist, Bruen-faithful framework that squarely recognizes AR‑15–type rifles and >10‑round magazines as protected “arms” in common use.
The Third Circuit has held that New Jersey’s ban on AR-15-type semi-automatic rifles and its magazine-capacity restriction violate the Second Amendment. The court modified the district court’s order to cover the full class of similar semi-automatic rifles, not just the Colt AR-15, and it reversed the lower court on magazines.
What changed
- The Third Circuit ruled that New Jersey’s assault-firearms provision is unconstitutional as to the full class of similar semi-automatic rifles.
- The Third Circuit also ruled that New Jersey’s magazine-capacity ban is unconstitutional.
- The opinion treats these rifles and magazines as protected “arms” and finds them in common use for lawful purposes.
What has not changed
- This does not necessarily mean New Jersey gun stores can immediately begin selling previously banned rifles or magazines over 10 rounds.
- The case was remanded for further proceedings, which means additional litigation is still coming.
- It is highly likely that New Jersey will seek Supreme Court review, so the ruling may not be the final procedural word.
- What NJ gun owners should do now
- Treat this as a major legal win, but not as automatic permission to buy, sell, transfer, or possess items that New Jersey has historically prohibited.
- Wait for clarity on whether there will be a stay, when the mandate issues, what the district court does on remand, and whether state officials change enforcement practices.
- Before taking action, check for updated guidance from reliable New Jersey firearms counsel or the organizations litigating the case.
- What to watch next
- Whether New Jersey seeks emergency relief or certiorari in the Supreme Court.
- Whether any court order or mandate changes what dealers and residents may do in the immediate term.
- Whether this ruling becomes part of a broader circuit split that pushes the Supreme Court toward a nationwide merits decision on so-called assault-weapon and magazine bans.
Short disclaimer
This alert describes the ruling as discussed in the cited video and should not be treated as individualized legal advice. For any immediate possession, transfer, or purchase decision in New Jersey, the key question is not only what the Third Circuit said, but also what orders are in effect after the next procedural steps.
North Carolina: North Carolina’s legislature is adjourned until July 27, when it may take up veto overrides, including S50, a permitless carry bill that passed in 2025, was vetoed by Governor Josh Stein, overridden in the Senate, and now awaits a House supermajority to become law.
Politics
Remaining Primary Elections Calendar:
July: Arizona (July 21);
CD 1: NRA-PVF has endorsed Joseph Chaplik; Gov: NRA-PVF has given both Andy Biggs and David Schweikert A ratings; Attorney General: NRA-PVF has endorsed Warren Peterson. In the State Senate Rep. primary the following candidates have been endorsed: District 02-Shawnna Bolick; 03-John Kavanagh; 27-Kevin Payne. In the State House: District 01: Quang Nguyen and Selina Bliss; 03-Cody Reim; 04-Pamela Carter and Matt Gress; 07-Walter Blackman; 10-Justin Olson; 14-Laurin Hendrix; 19-Lupe Diaz and David Gowan; 28-David Livingston and Beverly Pingerelli
August: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, Washington*, Tennessee, Hawaii, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin, Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming. (*In Washington, as reported last week by TGM, the Tacoma Rifle and Revolver Club has endorsed a slate of four candidates for the state Supreme Court, which right now is all liberal. Getting the nod from Tacoma gun owners are candidates Dave Larson, David Stevens, Todd Bloom and Scott Edwards.—Editor)
September: Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Delaware.
Important 2026 Elections
Over the course of the next few months, we will highlight some of the important Congressional elections in this cycle. Since the activity of the last several weeks concerning the Democrat candidate in the Maine Senate election has changed, we thought we would begin by looking at the current incumbent and her background.
Senator Susan Collins: Maine Senate Elections, and the 2026 Reelection Outlook
Overview
Susan Collins has been one of the most durable statewide politicians in Maine for three decades, serving in the U.S. Senate since January 1997 after first winning election in 1996. Her political identity has centered on seniority, bipartisan positioning, constituency service, and an ability to outperform the national Republican brand in a state that often votes Democratic for president.
Career and Political Profile
Collins was born in Caribou, Maine, graduated from St. Lawrence University, and entered public service, working for Maine’s Republican Senator William (Bill) Cohen, first as a staffer when he served in the U.S. House and then continuing when he moved to the U.S. Senate, for roughly 12 years beginning in the mid‑1970s and ending in the late 1980s. She is now Maine’s senior senator, the most senior Republican woman in the Senate.
Her reputation has been built on institutional seniority and a moderate, bipartisan brand rather than movement-style partisanship. Her official Senate biography states that she has repeatedly been ranked among the Senate’s most bipartisan members and highlights legislative work in health care, national defense, education, transportation, aging policy, and intelligence reform.
That profile matters electorally in Maine because it separates Collins from the national Republican label more effectively than almost any other Republican officeholder in a blue-leaning state. Even critics who view the 2026 race as highly competitive acknowledge that Collins has long been the rare Republican who can assemble a coalition broad enough to win statewide in Maine.
Maine Senate Election History
Collins first won the seat in 1996 and was reelected in 2002, 2008, 2014, and 2020. That gives her five successful Senate elections spanning nearly thirty years, a record that is itself strong evidence of sustained voter confidence and unusual staying power.
Her 2020 reelection is especially important for evaluating 2026. In that race, Collins won 51 percent of the vote and defeated Democrat Sara Gideon by roughly nine points even while Joe Biden carried Maine at the top of the ticket, making Collins the only Senate candidate in 2020 to win in a state lost by her party’s presidential nominee.
That result demonstrated three recurring features of Collins’s electoral strength: personal crossover appeal, effective separation from national partisan headwinds, and deep familiarity with Maine voters. For a legal or political analysis of likely reelection, the 2020 result is the single strongest empirical indicator that Collins remains uniquely capable of surviving adverse partisan conditions.
Analysts have pointed to several overlapping explanations for this failure.
- Sampling and turnout modeling: Some post‑hoc work suggested pollsters under sampled working‑class and rural voters in Maine and mis‑projected the composition of the electorate, overstating Democratic turnout and understating Republican and unenrolled participation. (270 to win+2)
- Mode and “shy voter” dynamics: As in other 2016–2020 races, telephone and online surveys appear to have missed part of the Republican‑leaning universe, including voters reluctant to signal support for a polarizing GOP‑aligned figure in a heavily nationalized environment. (brookings+1)
- Candidate‑specific factors: Polls captured Collins’ underwater favorability but did not fully translate her long‑standing reputation for independence into vote intention, especially in small, rural counties where she ultimately ran ahead of Republican baselines. (politico+2)
- Nationalization bias: Many observers treated Maine as a straightforward anti‑Trump and anti‑Kavanaugh terrain, but voters distinguished between national party politics and Collins personally, producing the only Senate result in 2020 where the state chose a senator from a different party than its presidential winner. (wikipedia+1)
What this case shows about polling
The Collins case illustrates that polls can fail in multiple ways at once: they can miss who will vote, mis‑measure how specific groups intend to vote, and misread how a personally distinct incumbent fits into national polarization. It also shows the limits of treating apparent double‑digit leads as secure; even a battery of “high‑quality” polls can converge on an incorrect picture if they share the same sampling frame and likely‑voter assumptions. That is why forecasters and pollsters covering Maine today explicitly adjust for 2020’s R +8.5 outcome when building their models, use time‑weighted and partisanship‑adjusted averages, and experiment with new contact methods and turnout screens to avoid repeating that error.
Available public reporting identifies the race as competitive but not anti-incumbent in a way that clearly dislodges Collins. A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released in June 2026 found a slight Democratic edge in the potential matchup with disgraced Graham Platner, while a Fox News poll later in June found Collins ahead 50 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. Both polls predate Platner’s July 10 formal withdrawal.
