By Dave Workman
Editor-in-Chief
A new Rasmussen survey shows former President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden 47-41 in the race for the White House, now that both men appear to have secured their parties’ nominations following primaries in several states.
Even better news for Trump loyalists is that the former president is even farther ahead of presumed Biden replacement California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who many suspect will be nominated this summer as the president steps aside. At this point, Biden shows no signs of letting his health get in the way of a run for a second term.
According to Rasmussen, last month Trump led Biden by only six points, but that was before the president’s State of the Union address, which many have criticized as a mean-spirited, divisive campaign speech.
The survey of 912 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 5-7, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
“Against Biden,” Rasmussen reported, “Trump would get 85% of Republican voters while Biden gets 76% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump gets 45% to Biden’s 33%.
“Against Newsom,” Rasmussen added, “Trump would get 86% of Republicans while Newsom gets 60% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, Trump leads Newsom by a 19-point margin, with 49% to Newsom’s 30%.”
But the poll also revealed the results of a match-up between Trump and former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has claimed she is not interested in a presidential run.
“Trump’s margin among independents would be much narrower in a hypothetical matchup against Michelle Obama,” Rasmussen revealed. “In such a contest, 84% of Republicans would vote for Trump while 75% of Democrats would vote for Obama, and unaffiliated voters would split with 48% for Trump and 40% for Obama.
“Significantly,” the polling firm noted, “the former First Lady would maximize the ‘gender gap’ for Democrats. Michelle Obama would win among women voters, 49% to 46%, while Trump would score a 17-point margin among men, 54% to 37%. Against either Biden or Newsom, Trump leads by a plurality among women voters.”
With the election still seven months away, there are several key issues topping the voter interest charts, and gun control is not among them. Still, for many of Trump’s base, as noted by a report at Ammoland, guns and Second Amendment rights are the issues which could bring lots of people to the polls Nov. 5.
