By Dave Workman
Editor-in-Chief
A database of mass shootings maintained by the Associated Press, USA Today and Northeastern University says 2025 has produced the lowest number of such incidents—in which four or more people are killed—since 2006, according to several published reports.
The Guardian is reporting the incident last weekend in California at a child’s birthday party was the 17th mass shooting this year. The newspaper quotes criminologist James Alan Fox at Northeastern, who manages the database, saying mass shootings are down “about 24 percent” this year from, 2024, which also saw a decline of approximately 20 percent from the number posted in 2023.
He indicated the number could rebound in 2026.
One thing which did emerge from the reports could refute the dire images of gun-related violence in the U.S. put forth by the gun prohibition lobby, however.
PBS noted in its coverage of the mass shooting decline that, “Mass killings are rare,” according to Prof. James Densley at Metropolitan State University in Minnesota.
“Because there’s only a few dozen mass killings in a year, a small change could look like a wave or a collapse,” when really it’s just a return to more typical levels, Densley said, according to the PBS report. “2025 looks really good in historical context, but we can’t pretend like that means the problem is gone for good.”
Importantly, the decline has coincided with adoption of “constitutional carry” laws in 29 of the 50 states, and nationally, there are some 21 million citizens legally licensed to carry concealed handguns. Updated data on concealed carry is expected within days from the Crime Prevention Research Center.
Remarkably, PBS quoted Densley explaining that the August shooting at Minneapolis’ Annunciation School and Church would not fit the definition of a mass shooting because only two people were killed, while more than 20 were wounded. He credited the survival rate to the nearby presence of children’s hospitals and the trauma response of first responders to the tragedy.
Likewise, under that definition, the shooting of two National Guard troopers in Washington, D.C. in which only one died also would not qualify.
Densley also pointed to the overall decline in homicides since the number reported during the COVID-19 pandemic.
